Fight for Premier League Survival: Which Teams Will Make It?

The Premier League relegation battle is heating up as the end of the season approaches. Nottingham Forest and Everton are in danger of being relegated after being hit by points deductions. Forest moved three points clear of the drop zone with a 3-1 win over Fulham, while Everton snatched a vital draw against Newcastle to move four points clear of 18th-placed Luton. Meanwhile, Burnley’s mini-revival continues as they extended their unbeaten run to four matches with a draw against Wolves. Sheffield United also has a glimmer of hope after back-to-back draws. Luton remains in the bottom three after a 2-0 loss at Arsenal. In this section, we will take a closer look at the current state of play at the bottom of the Premier League.

It’s complicated…

Nottingham Forest has been given a four-point deduction for breaking the profit and sustainability rules (PSR). However, they have appealed against this decision, which could lead to complications. Last November, Everton was given a 10-point deduction for breaching PSR in the three years up to and including 2021-22. The deduction was later reduced to six points on appeal in February. But, in January, they were charged again for alleged breaches in their accounts up to 2022-23. If Everton is found to have breached the financial rules again, they could face another points deduction. The verdict is expected in April, and it would be subject to appeal. Any appeals could take that process to 24 May, the week after the season concludes on 19 May. However, it is believed that any decision would be made before the final day.

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Current table

The current Premier League table is as follows:

Team Played Points GD Form (past 5 games)
Brentford 31 28 -13 DLLDD
Everton 30 26 -11 DLLLD
Nottingham Forest 31 25 -14 LLDDW
Luton 31 22 -11 DLDLL
Burnley 31 19 -34 LDWDD
Sheffield United 29 15 -50 LLLDD

The run-in

Each team’s remaining fixtures are as follows:

Brentford: 6 April v Aston Villa (away); 13 April v Sheffield Utd (home); 20 April v Luton (away); 27 April v Everton (away); 4 May v Fulham (home); 11 May v Bournemouth (away); 19 May v Newcastle (home).

Everton: 6 April v Burnley (home); 15 April v Chelsea (away); 21 April v Nottm Forest (home); 24 April v Liverpool (home); 27 April v Brentford (home); 4 May v Luton (away); 11 May v Sheffield Utd (home); 19 May v Arsenal (away).

Nottingham Forest: 7 April v Tottenham (away); 13 April v Wolves (home); 21 April v Everton (away); 27 April v Manchester City (home); 4 May v Sheffield Utd (away); 11 May v Chelsea (home); 19 May v Burnley (away).

Luton Town: 6 April v Bournemouth (home); 13 April v Manchester City (away); 20 April v Brentford (home); 28 April v Wolves (away); 4 May v Everton (home); 11 May v West Ham (away); 19 May v Fulham (home).

Burnley: 6 April v Everton (away); 13 April v Brighton (home); 20 April v Sheffield Utd (away); 27 April v Manchester United (away); 4 May v Newcastle (home); 11 May v Tottenham (away); 19 May v Nottm Forest (home).

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Sheffield United: 4 April v Liverpool (away); 7 April v Chelsea (home); 13 April v Brentford (away); 20 April v Burnley (home); 24 April v Manchester United (away); 27 April v Newcastle (away); 4 May v Nottm Forest (home); 11 May v Everton (away); 19 May v Tottenham (home).

What do the prediction models suggest?

Our data experts predict that Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United are the most likely teams to be relegated. According to Opta, Luton has a 77.9% chance of being relegated, while Burnley has a 95.6% chance of being relegated.

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